PROBABILISTIC MODELS CONSTRUCTION FOR PREDICTION OF OIL AND GAS POTENTIAL OF UPPER JURASSIC DEPOSITS (EXEMPLIFIED BY THE BU KOGALYMNEFTEGAZ ACTIVITY AREA)

Abstract


BU Kogalymneftegaz offers strong factual evidence allowing developing a methodology to predict oil and gas po- tential BY constructing probabilistic and statistical models based on geological zones description. A special feature of this method is that only variables permanently available to producers are considered, in addition, they will be used in- tegrally, providing high reliability of obtained probabilistic and statistical prediction models of oil and gas potential.This method of oil and gas potential prediction can be performed with certain zone maturity, i.e. when a number of zones is used for analyses, some of which contain hydrocarbons in the sediment and some are hydrocarbon-free. All of these zones can be characterized by the same parameters, and these parameters can be determined before apply- ing them for further research. This helps to build probabilistic and statistical models that can be practically used in as- sessing oil and gas potential of the undrilled areas. Such method allows planning the sequence of research within the areas. It is suggested that identification of the most promising oil and gas bearing zones should be made by construct- ing geological and mathematical prediction models. It is important that in constructing the models the probabilities cal- culated on the basis of parameters, but not the different dimensional parameters themselves will be used. To obtain the necessary probabilities regression equation will be constructed. Probability values used in incremental linear dis- criminant and multivariate regression analysis will permit to develop a complex probabilistic criterion. This criterion will be used in future to build a multidimensional model directly for the zones, on the basis of which it is possible to identify priority areas recommended for further research.


About the authors

A. N Shaikhutdinov

LLC "LUKOIL - West Siberia"

Author for correspondence.
Email: Aidar.Shayhutdinov@lukoil.com
628486, Kogalym, Pribaltiiskaia st., 20

References

  1. Galkin V.I., Rastegaev A.V., Galkin S.V. Verojatnostno-statisticheskaja ocenka neftegazonosnosti lokal'nyh struktur [Probabilistic and statistical assessment of oil-and-gas content in local structures]. Ekaterinburg: Ural'skoe otdelenie Rossijskoj akademii nauk, 2001. 277 p.
  2. Kerusov I.N., Strahov P.N., Cyganova N.R., Potrjasov A.A., Skachek K.G., Shajhutdinov A.N. Geologicheskaja informativnost' sejsmorazvedki 3D pri izuchenii dojurskogo kompleksa Zapadnoj Sibiri (na primere ploshhadej Kogalymskogo regiona) [Geologic informativeness of 3D seismic survey in a study of the pre-Jurassic complex of Western Siberia (exemplified by Kogalym region)]. Sbornik dokladov shestoj nauchno-prakticheskoj konferencii “Puti realizacii neftegazovogo potenciala HMAO”. Hanty-Mansijsk: IzdatNaukaServis, 2003, vol. II, pp. 26–32.
  3. Skachek K.G., Shajhutdinov A.N., Garifullin I.I., Skachek O.V. Primenenie facial'nogo analiza pri izuchenii slozhnopostroennyh zalezhej nefti plasta Ju1 na primere Kumali-Jagunskogo mestorozhdenija [Facial analysis in a study of complex oil deposits of the reservoir Yu1 exemplified by Kumali-Yagunskoe deposit]. Sbornik dokladov shestoj nauchno-prakticheskoj konferencii “Puti realizacii neftegazovogo potenciala HMAO”. Hanty-Mansijsk: IzdatNaukaServis, 2003, vol. II, pp. 160–165.
  4. Galkin V.I., Brodjagin V.V., Potrjasov A.A., Skachek K.G., Shajhutdinov A.N. Zonal'nyj prognoz neftegazonosnosti jurskih otlozhenij v predelah territorii dejatel'nosti TPP “Kogalymneftegaz” [Zonal forecast of oil-and-gas content of Jurassic sediments within the activities area of TPP “Kogalymneftegaz”]. Geologija, geofizika i razrabotka neftjanyh i gazovyh mestorozhdenij. Moscow: Vserossijskij nauchno-issledovatel'skij institut organizacii, upravlenija i jekonomiki neftegazovoj promyshlennosti, 2008, no. 8, pp. 31–35.
  5. Galkin V.I., Shajhutdinov A.N. O vozmozhnosti prognoza neftegazonosnosti jurskih otlozhenij verojatnostno-statisticheskimi metodami (na primere territorii dejatel'nosti TPP “Kogalymneftegaz” [Possibilities of forecasting oil-and-gas content of Jurassic sediments by probabilistic and statistical methods exemplified by the activities area of TPP “Kogalymneftegaz”]. Geologija, geofizika i razrabotka neftjanyh i gazovyh mestorozhdenij. Moscow: Vserossijskij nauchno-issledovatel'skij institut organizacii, upravlenija i jekonomiki neftegazovoj promyshlennosti, 2009, no. 6, pp. 11–14.
  6. Shajhutdinov A.N. Vydelenie slozhnopostroennyh lovushek plasta Ju-1 Juzhno-Jagunskogo mestorozhdenija po dannym sejsmofacial'nogo analiza [Identification of traps of the reservoir Yu1 of Yujno-Yagunskoe deposit using seismic and facial analysis]. Geologija, geofizika i razrabotka neftjanyh i gazovyh mestorozhdenij. Moscow: Vserossijskij nauchno-issledovatel'skij institut organizacii, upravlenija i jekonomiki neftegazovoj promyshlennosti, 2009, no. 8, pp. 29–37.
  7. Galkin V.I., Shajhutdinov A.N. Postroenie statisticheskih modelej dlja prognoza debitov nefti po verhnejurskim otlozhenijam Kogalymskogo regiona [Creating statistical models to forecast oil output using data on upper Jurassic sediments of Kogalym region]. Neftjanoe hozjajstvo, 2010, no. 1, pp. 52–54.
  8. Galkin V.I., Rastegaev A.V., Galkin S.V., Voevodkin V.L. Opredelenie perspektivnyh napravlenij poiskov mestorozhdenij nefti i gaza v Permskom krae s pomoshh'ju verojatnostno-statisticheskih metodov [Identification of promising directions of oil and gas search in Perm kray using probabilistic and statistical methods]. Nauka proizvodstvu. Moscow: Virazh-centr, 2006, no. 1, pp. 1–5.
  9. Galkin V.I., Krivoshhekov S.N. Obosnovanie napravlenij poiskov mestorozhdenij nefti i gaza v Permskom krae [Justification for direction of oil and gas search in Perm kray]. Nauchnye issledovanija i innovacii. Permskij gosudarstvennyj tehnicheskij universitet, 2009, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 3–7.
  10. Putilov I.S., Galkin V.I. Primenenie verojatnostnogo statisticheskogo analiza dlja izuchenija facial'noj zonal'nosti turne-famenskogo karbonatnogo kompleksa Sibirskogo mestorozhdenija [Application of probabilistic and statistical analysis to study facial zonality of Tourne-famenskoe carbonate complex of Siberian deposit]. Neftjanoe hozjajstvo, 2007, no. 9, pp. 112–114.
  11. Bartels C.P.A., Ketellapper R.H. Exploratory and explanatory statistical analysis data. Boston: MartinusNijhoff Publishing, 1979. 284 p.
  12. Davis C.J. Estimation of the probability of success in petroleum exploration. Mathematical Geology, 1977, vol. 9, no. 4, p. 409–427.
  13. Kaufman M.G. Statistical Issues in the Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources. Cambridge: MIT-CEEPR, 1992. 30 p.
  14. Watson G.S. Statistic on spheres. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1983. 238 p.
  15. Unwin D. Introductory spatial analysis. London: Methuen and Co., Ltd., 1981. 212 p.

Statistics

Views

Abstract - 68

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2014 Shaikhutdinov A.N.

This website uses cookies

You consent to our cookies if you continue to use our website.

About Cookies